Oscars 2019: Predictions and Film Excess' favorites

2/24/2019

Oscars 2019: Predictions and Film Excess' favorites

The 91st Academy Awards tonight is the culmination of many months of unsure courses set by the academy, leading to a host-less Oscar show, where much about the event seems to be up in the air, and where the risk of a ratings and PR disaster for the academy is very present.
Academy plans for a 'Popular Oscar' category were dismantled after furor; as was plans for relegating 4 categories to commercial breaks, as prominent filmmakers were again enraged. Only having two of the nominated songs performed inspired more anger and was also canceled. Plans to have Kevin Hart host fell through, as he refused to apologize for past homophobic statements, which he said he had already apologized for; (he then apologized anyway and basically jumped ship from the high-pressure event.) Dwayne Johnson has outed himself as prospect Oscar host, but he also bailed. The academy has failed to book such good hosting cards such as Hugh Jackman, Tig Notaro or Louie Anderson. Whether it will succeed in making a shorter broadcast as was the ambition, - we will have to wait and see.
The Oscars are looking more dubious than ever before, and the night should hopefully prove these months wrong in order for the tradition to live on successfully.

This year, I have so far only been able to watch 8 of the 37 nominated features, (I leave out the 3 short film categories as usual.) Those 8 films are: The Favourite, Black Panther, Border, Cold War, A Star Is Born, A Quiet Place, Shoplifters and The Wife.
Most nominated this year with 10 apiece are Roma and The Favourite, followed by A Star Is Born and Vice with 8 each. The injustices of the Oscars are righted in Film Excess' annual lists of the best and worst of 2018, which will boom to include more honors and Film Excess' awards (the latter only when the 2018 review tally crosses 100 titles.) So keep coming back here to see what was actually the best (and worst) of the year in films and TV-series.
My record for predictions from the past 5 years is this: 2014 (7 correct/33 % - worst prediction), 2015 (13 correct/62 %), 2016 (16 correct/76 % - best prediction), 2017 (11 correct/52 %) and 2018 (14 correct/66 %).
Following are the 21 major categories. Red marks the film or performer/s that I predict will win the Oscar, while Film Excess favorite marks my personal favorite in each category.

Best Visual Effects:
Avengers: Infinity War
Christopher Robin
First Man Film Excess favorite
Ready Player One
Solo: A Star Wars Story

Best Film Editing:
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book Film Excess favorite
Vice

Bost Costume Design
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs
Black Panther
The Favourite Film Excess favorite
Mary Poppins Returns
Mary Queen of Scots

Best Makeup and Hairstyling
Border
Mary Queen of Scots
Vice Film Excess favorite

Best Cinematography
Cold War - Lukasz Zal Film Excess favorite
The Favourite - Robbie Ryan
Never Look Away - Caleb Deschanel
Roma - Alfonso Cuarón
A Star Is Born - Matthew Libatique

Best Production Design
Black Panther
The Favourite
First Man Film Excess favorite
Mary Poppins Returns
Roma

Best Sound Mixing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
Roma
A Star Is Born Film Excess favorite

Best Sound Editing
Black Panther
Bohemian Rhapsody
First Man
A Quiet Place Film Excess favorite
Roma

Best Original Song
All the Stars - Black Panther
I'll Fight - RBG
The Place Where Lost Things Go - Marry Poppins Returns
Shallow - A Star Is Born Film Excess favorite
When a Cowboy Trades His Spurs for Wings - The Ballad of Buster Scruggs

Best Original Score
Black Panther - Ludwig Göransson
BlacKkKlansman - Terence Blanchard
If Beale Street Could Talk - Nicholas Britell Film Excess favorite
Isle of Dogs - Alexandre Desplat
Mary Poppins Returns - Marc Shaiman

Best Documentary - Feature
Free Solo Film Excess favorite
Hale Country This Morning, This Evening
Minding the Gap
Of Fathers and Sons
RBG

Best Foreign Language Film
Capernaum (Lebanon) - Ladine Labaki Film Excess favorite
Cold War (Poland) - Pawel Pawlikowski
Never Look Away (Germany) - Florian Henckel von Donnersmarck
Roma (Mexico) - Alfonso Cuarón
Shoplifters (Japan) - Hirokazu Kore-eda

Best Animated Feature Film
Incredibles 2
Isle of Dogs
Mirai
Ralph Breaks the Internet
Spider-Man: Into the Spider-Verse Film Excess favorite

Best Adapted Screenplay
The Ballad of Buster Scruggs - Joel and Ethan Coen
BlacKkKlansman - Charlie Wachtel, David Rabinowitz, Kevin Willmott, Spike Lee
Can You Ever Forgive Me? - Nicole Holofcener, Jeff Whitty
If Beale Street Could Talk - Barry Jenkins Film Excess favorite
A Star Is Born - Eric Roth, Bradley Cooper, Will Fetters

Best Original Screenplay
The Favourite - Deborah Davis, Tony McNamara
First Reformed - Paul Shrader Film Excess favorite
Green Book - Nick Vallelonga, Brian Currie, Peter Farrelly
Roma - Alfonso Cuarón
Vice - Adam McKay

Best Supporting Actress
Amy Adams - Vice Film Excess favorite
Marina de Tavira - Roma
Regina King - If Beale Street Could Talk
Emma Stone - The Favourite
Rachel Weisz - The Favourite

Best Supporting Actor
Mahershala Ali - Green Book Film Excess favorite
Adam Driver - BlacKkKlansman
Sam Elliott - A Star Is Born
Richard E. Grant - Can You Ever Forgive Me?
Sam Rockwell - Vice

Best Actress
Yalitza Aparicio - Roma
Glenn Close - The Wife
Olivia Colman - The Favourite Film Excess favorite
Lady Gaga - A Star Is Born
Melissa McCarty - Can You Ever Forgive Me?

Best Actor
Christian Bale - Vice
Bradley Cooper - A Star Is Born Film Excess favorite
Willem Dafoe - At Eternity's Gate
Rami Malek - Bohemian Rhapsody
Viggo Mortensen - Green Book'

Best Director
Spike Lee - BlacKkKlansman Film Excess favorite
Pawel Pawlikowski - Cold War
Yorgos Lanthimos - The Favourite
Alfonso Cuarón - Roma
Adam McKay - Vice

Best Picture
Black Panther
BlacKkKlansman
Bohemian Rhapsody
The Favourite
Green Book
Roma
A Star Is Born Film Excess favorite
Vice

Related posts:

Oscars 2018: Predictions and Film Excess' favorites
Oscars 2017: Predictions and Film Excess' favorites
Oscars 2016: Predictions and Film Excess' favorites
Oscars 2015: Prognosis and Film Excess' favorites
Oscars 2014: Prognosis and Film Excess' favorites

What are your predictions and hopes for the 2019 Oscars?
What do you think about my choices here?
Enjoy the show

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Roger Corman has passed away

Born in Detroit, Michigan, Corman had a sprawling, intellectually hungry life as a youth and young man before arriving with his first film in 1955, Five Guns West. He would follow that with titles such as Apache Woman, It Conquered the World, Attack of the Crab Monsters, Teenage Cave Man, A Bucket of Blood, House of Usher, The Little Shop of Horrors, The Pit and the Pendulum, The Intruder, The Raven, The Terror, The Masque of Red Death, The Tomb of Ligeia, The Wild Angels, The Trip, Bloody Mama and many more. As a producer he was behind almost 500 films. Arguably among the most important filmmakers of the 20th century, Corman passed away at age 98. R.I.P.

William Friedkin has died

Born in Chicago, Friedkin accrued TV credits prior to his advance to the big screen as the director of Good TImes (1967), The Birthday Party (1968), The Night They Raided Minsky's (1968) and The Boys in the Band (1970) before his major breakthrough, The French Connection (1971), for which he won his only Oscar. He followed it up with the even bigger smash, The Exorcist (1973), arguably the best horror film of all time, for which he was Oscar-nominated. Later credits include Sorcerer (1977), Cruising (1980), To Live and Die in L.A. (1985), Rampage (1987), Rules of Engagement (2000), Killer Joe (2011) and The Devil and Father Amorth (2017, documentary). Friedkin passed away at age 87. R.I.P.

Louise Fletcher has passed away

Born in Alabama to deaf parents, Fletcher got her first credits in late-1950s TV-series.She took a 10 year-long sabbatical to devote her time to motherhood after the release of A Gathering of Eagles, but then came back and soon saw her career's most important part, as Nurse Ratched in One Flew Over the Cuckoo's Nest (1975), for which she won her sole Oscar. Later credits include Exorcist II: The Heretic (1977), The Lucky Star (1980), Brainstorm (1983), Two Moon Junction (1988), Cruel Intentions (1999), A Perfect Man (2013) and many more. Fletcher passed away at age 88. R.I.P.

Jean-Luc Godard has passed away

Born in Paris, France, Godard lived much of his life in Switzerland. He wrote for French film criticism magazine Cahiers du Cinema and became foundational for the New French Wave that inspired new waves in scores of other countries across the world with his Breathless (1960). Later credits include A Woman Is A Woman (1961), Vivre Sa Vie (1962), Le Petit Soldat (1962), Contempt (1963), Alphaville (1965), Pierrot le Fou (1965), 2 or 3 Things I Know About Her (1967), Weekend (1967), Every Man for Himself (1980), King Lear (1987), Century of Cinema (1995, documentary), Goodbye to Language (2014) and many more. Godard died of assisted suicide at age 91. R.I.P.

Wolfgang Petersen has died

James Caan has died

Caan was born the son of Jewish immigrants from Germany in New York. He got his start on TV in the early 1960s. His credits include El Dorado (1966), The Rain People (1969), Brian's Song (1971, TV movie), The Godfather (1972), - for which he earned his only Oscar nomination, - Slither (1973), The Gambler (1974), Funny Lady (1975), Rollerball (1975), Silent Movie (1976), Hide in Plain Sight (1980), - the only film he also directed, - Thief (1981), Misery (1990), Honeymoon in Vegas (1992), Bottle Rocket (1996), Eraser (1996), Dogville (2003), Elf (2003), Las Vegas (2003-07), Cloudy with a Chance of Meatballs (2009) and many more. Caan passed away at age 82. R.I.P.

Jean-Louis Trintignant has died

Born in Vaucluse, France, Trintignant's theatrical debut as an actor was in If All the Guys in the World... (1955). Later credits include ...And God Created Woman (1956), The Seven Deadly Sins (1961), Inferno (1964), A Man and A Woman (1966), My Love, My Love (1967), A Man to Kill (1967), The Great Silence (1968), Z (1969), The Assassination (1972), Three Colors: Red (1994), Amour (2012), Happy End (2017) and many more. He also wrote and directed two films in the 1970s. Trintignant passed away at age 91. R.I.P.

Ray Liotta has died

Adopted from an orphenage at a young age, Liotta got hooked on acting in high school. He had various TV credits in the late 1970s and early 80s, with his film debut in The Lonely Lady (1983). Later credits include Something Wild (1986), Field of Dreams (1989), Goodfellas (1990), Cop Land (1997), Hannibal (2001), Blow (2001), Narc (2002), John Q (2002), Identity (2003), Observe and Report (2009), Youth in Revolt (2009), The Details (2011), Killing THem Softly (2012), The Place Beyond the Pines (2012), Shades of Blue (2016-18), The Simpsons (2018, TV-series), Marriage Story (2019), The Many Saints of Newark (2021), Black Bird (2022, TV-series) and many more. Liotta passed away at age 67 in his sleep while on production in the Dominican Republic. R.I.P.

Philip Baker Hall has died

Born in Ohio, Hall didn't start acting until he was 30. His long list of credits include Zabriskie Point (1970), Miami Vice (1987, TV-series), Midnight Run (1988), Ghostbusters II (1989), Cheers (1993, TV-series), Hard Eight (1996), The Rock (1996), Air Force One (1997), Boogie Nights (1997), Seinfeld (1991-98), Rush Hour (1998), The Insider (1999), Magnolia (1999), The Talented Mr. Ripley (1999), Bruce Almighty (2003), Dogville (2003), The Zodiac (2005), Zodiac (2007), Curb Your Enthusiasm (2004-09), Mr. Popper's Penguins (2011), Modern Family (2011-12) and many more. Hall passed away at age 90. R.I.P.

William Hurt has passed away

Born in Washington D.C., Hurt's first film role was the lead in Altered States (1980). Later credits include Body Heat (1981), The Big Chill (1983), Gorky Park (1983), Kiss of the Spider Woman (1985), for which he earned his only Oscar as Best Actor; Chilrdren of a Lesser God (1986), for which he was also Oscar-nominated; Broadcast News (1987), for which he was again Oscar-nominated; Smoke (1995), A.I. Artificial Intelligence (2001), A History of Violence (2005), for which he was again Oscar-nominated; The Good Shepherd (2006), Into the Wild (2007), Robin Hood (2010) and many more. Hurt passed away at age 71. R.I.P.

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2/24/2019

Oscars 2019: Predictions and Film Excess' favorites

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